Editor ’s Insights: It Helps to Take a Longer View into 2023
Trend Report is a trends and forecast publication now in its 178th edition. In this issue, Predictions for 2023 are made by industry experts on the economy, multifamily, industrial, residential permits and downtown development. With the challenges come opportunities if we step back and take a longer view into 2023.
I find it striking that so many real estate professionals are willing and able to look beyond the cyclical economic headwinds and take a longer view. As one person told me, “We’ll look back in ten years, and the prices that seem astronomical today will seem like a bargain.”
The real estate industry is moving beyond what it perceives as cyclical headwinds—and taking a long-term view approach to real estate assets. The mood among most real estate professionals is cautious optimism. Their plan: Ride out the current slump and reposition their firms for another period of sustained growth and even stronger returns.
This “Predictions 2023” issue reconfirms two sometimes contradictory property market trends: Aspects of the industry “normalizing” while others appear to have permanently changed as the pandemic changed how and where we use some properties. Regardless the trends, companies must stay flexible and adapt quickly to market changes.
George Hammond, our Chief Economist at Eller College explains what Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson can expect from the current shifting economic winds. While the unstoppable Rio Nuevo Chairman, Fletcher McCusker, is looking forward to 2023 and the tremendous re-development continuing throughout our downtown district.
We first asked experts for perspectives into the two hottest real estate markets in 2022: multifamily and industrial.
The Marcus & Millichap team, Clint Wadlund, Hamid Panahi, Art Wadlund & Alex Snyder share their insights into the Tucson multifamily market they describe is “recalibrating.” Ryan Boyle with Colliers International also thinks the Tucson multifamily market will stabilize and set the stage for a healthy performance in 2023.
Gary Emerson, Partner at GRE Partners specialized in industrial properties says 2023 should be a record year for the industrial market; along with experts, Tim Healy & Jackson Kraft at CBRE Tucson who expect the trend to be a continuation of 2022 for the industrial market.
Steve Cole, Principal, Southwest Appraisal Associates discusses the “what-ifs” of a recession, interest rates and their effect of real estate prices in 2023 and retells that economists have a “record of failure to predict recessions that is virtually unblemished.”
Batoun Herrington, CCIM, has recently founded, the Branel Real Estate Company, and has her eye on the opportunities and challenges for the Best-in-Class real estate segments.
Getting ready for a new year also means getting ahead of property taxes and Jodi Bain of The Bain Law Firm, PLLC, brings the importance of property tax planning to our attention.
Tucson’s leading land broker, Will White of Land Advisors Organization, makes some bold predictions: “Expect 2022 to end with under 4,000 SFR permits and 3,267 lot permits for 2023.”
As a special feature, we have added Point + Counterpoint with George Larsen, CCIM & Mellissa Lal, CCIM of Larsen Baker where their opposing viewpoints and expectations for 2023 are debated in a witty manner, reminding us once again that if you don’t like what you’re seeing, then step back and take a longer view.
2022 has been a wild ride…just as David Ollanik of Sundt Construction prompts us to hold on for 2023!
To all who helped with this issue, Trend Report would like to extend our sincere thanks for sharing your valuable time and expertise. We also thank the Trend report team: Patti van Leer, Michael Rossmann, Melissa Vucijevic and Jack Paddock. We start work today on an incredible January issue that will take us through a “Review of 2022,” the likes of which only Trend Report can do.
We also thank you our readers, for your continued support, as always, we appreciate your feedback and welcome your comments