The future is now in the land market in Pima County. The decisions and deals that get made over the next 3 years will shape and determine what happens for the next 20 years in Pima County. The activity in Tucson metro over the past 7 years was at a pace that I do not know will ever be duplicated again. There was almost $2 Billion worth of land that was traded since 2000. We have spent the last few months looking and evaluating what exactly has happened to the land market and why prices have fallen. The bottom line is that in 2005 there were approximately 598 deals done making up +/- $960,000,000 million of trading. In 2007 there were approximately 307 deals done making up +/- $500,000,000 million dollars of trading. The volume has dramatically fallen. We can almost be assured that this year will be proportionately less. The best days are in front of us as far as the land market is concerned and I genuinely feel that 2008 will show the bottom of the market in activity and pricing and that demand will pick back up towards the end of this year and into next year. This will stabilize prices and start to get real deals to happen again. (more…)

I was recently asked, “What are land values today for tracts of residential subdivision land?” and “How do appraisers value such properties in a market with few transactions of this type of property?”

The answer to the first question is that appraisers must reflect the current actions of buyers and sellers in the market. To the extent that they anticipate the future, so must our appraisals. Often, brokers and lenders think that appraisals are historically based because appraisers use closed transactions of comparable sales in order to deduce an opinion of market value. That works when a market has stable prices. However, when prices are moving rapidly either upwards or downwards, looking backwards simply doesn’t work. In estimating market value, it is always the assignment of appraisers to accurately and competently interpret the market in order to arrive at an appropriate opinion of value. Appraisers who unthinkingly apply the three approaches to value are not doing their jobs. (more…)

TREND report recently sat down with Southern Arizona’s top 4 home builders to get their outlook on the 2008 real estate market. Attending the roundtable were John Bremond of KB Home; David Greenberg of DR Horton Homes; Shawn Chlarson of Pulte Homes; and Steve Craddock of Lennar Homes. Despite the challenges they face in the year ahead, the overall mood was upbeat with David Greenberg injecting his keen sense of wit. (more…)

Touted by the mayor of Marana as raising the bar for development throughout the entire state, the 512.5 acre Sky Ranch master plan is considered to be one of the most environmentally-conscious developments in Southern Arizona. At the time of the purchase, the development, located near Tangerine and Thornydale, was within the boundaries of the federally designated pygmy owl critical habitat. Because of that, obtaining financing was a challenge. However, the developer Scott Stiteler, owner of Stellar Homes, along with his partners, believe they timed the purchase right and bought the land for $6,000 per acre. (more…)

With growing uncertainty in the real estate market, a fundamental question many builders and developers are faced with is whether to jump on the “green bandwagon” by incorporating sustainable planning and building practices into their projects. We are barraged daily by reports of global warming, receding glaciers, and rising sea levels. Even popular culture has embraced green building as the cause célèbre with the Oscar ceremonies going “carbon neutral” and Al Gore being awarded both the Nobel Peace Prize and an Oscar for his documentary and related efforts to combat global warming. It appears that at least for now green is “sexy.” (more…)

With Pima County population reaching one million and with over $2.5 Billion in land transactions since 2000, Tucson is planning for the next one million people. Regional land use will play an increasingly important role in how current communities develop and new growth areas emerge. The initial ground work has been laid for the next generation of large scale master-planned communities and mixed-use activity centers. In dealing with the region’s land use constraints and transportation options, there are community leaders and organizations working diligently to ensure that Tucson’s future is as exciting and vibrant as its past. This month TREND report sat down with community leaders including Ken Abrahams, Executive Vice President, Diamond Ventures, Andy Gunning, Director of Planning, Pima Association of Governments, Mike Hammond, President/CEO, PICOR and SO. AZ ULI Chair, Robin Shambach, AIA, Principal, Burns Wald-Hopkins Architects and past-president of So. AZ AIA, and Ron Shoopman, President, Southern Arizona Leadership Council. (more…)

In December, 2006, the Pima County Board of Supervisors directed County staff to begin a study of the Southwest region of Pima County. This study, called the Southwest Infrastructure Plan (SWIP)was requested to better plan for the anticipated growth in densities and infrastructure for seventy square miles of land located within the seven mile by twelve mile rectangular region generally bounded by Tucson Mountain Park to the north, Mission Road to the east, the Tohono O’odham Nation – San Xavier District and Pascua Yaqui Tribe lands to the south, and Sandario Road to the west. Ryan Airfield, a component of the Tucson Airport Authority, is contained within the boundaries of the study.

The purpose of SWIP is to provide a snapshot of existing conditions, an inventory of current and proposed infrastructure, opportunities for sustainable practices, and a forecast of future land needs. Pima County sees this area as a satellite community consisting of the 14,000 existing homes (mostly in the eastern area) and up to 40,000 additional new homes in planned communities, mostly in the western section of the planning area. It is hoped that Ryan Airfield and new industrial and commercial areas near Valencia Road and Ajo way will create a new hub for employment in the area. (more…)